Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
